Change To Believe In
The Times reports that the latest opinion poll on Scotland's voting intentions shows Labour losing even more ground which is good news if you ask me, because a result like this on 7 May will force a major realignment of politics in the UK.
For example, the case for change at the Westminster Parliament would become irresistible: the introduction of proportional representation would be on the cards, as would the abolition of the House of Lords, neither of which will ever happen while the Tories and Labour are calling the shots.
Britain's union bosses (the Bubs) would also be between a rock and a hard place because with only 25% or so of the popular vote how could the Bubs defend their role as cheerleaders for Labour?
In practice the unions would have to recruit from a wider gene pool than card-carrying members of the Labour Party and that can only be a good thing for democracy, diversity and the interests of ordinary union members - the majority of whom support the SNP these days of course.
The other thing that struck me from news report is that the Scottish Conservatives are not too far behind Labour in the latest opinion poll, but that's not too surprising because Ruth Davidson has been one of the stars of the general election so far, along with Nicola Sturgeon.
Poll puts Labour on four seats as SNP pulls away
Nicola Sturgeon: went head-to-head with Jim Murphy in debateRussell Cheyne/Reuters
By Sam Coates and Hamish Macdonell - The Times
Labour is failing to win back any support in Scotland as a poll puts the SNP at their highest level of support. The first YouGov poll for The Times taken after Tuesday’s Scottish leaders’ debate has found SNP support climbing to 49 per cent, up three points in a week, while Labour is on 25 per cent, down four points.
Scottish voters gave a damning verdict on the performance of Jim Murphy, the Scottish Labour leader, after his head-to-head with Nicola Sturgeon. The first minister was judged to have won by 56 per cent of those who watched or followed the debate.
Labour is failing to win back any support in Scotland as a poll puts the SNP at their highest level of support. The first YouGov poll for The Times taken after Tuesday’s Scottish leaders’ debate has found SNP support climbing to 49 per cent, up three points in a week, while Labour is on 25 per cent, down four points.
Scottish voters gave a damning verdict on the performance of Jim Murphy, the Scottish Labour leader, after his head-to-head with Nicola Sturgeon. The first minister was judged to have won by 56 per cent of those who watched or followed the debate.
Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader, came second on 14 per cent, leaving Mr Murphy trailing third on 13 per cent. Only 44 per cent of those who say they are Labour voters thought that Mr Murphy was the winner, while 88 per cent of SNP voters judged Ms Sturgeon as the best.
Today Ed Miliband will travel to Scotland in the hope of reviving his party’s chances north of the border. The Labour leader will launch an aggressive attack on the SNP’s plans for full fiscal autonomy and point to independent analysis suggesting that they would blow a £7.6 billion hole in the country’s finances.
He is due to say: “You can’t build social justice with a £7.6 billion funding gap because the burdens of it would fall on working families across Scotland. In contrast, Labour does have a plan for social justice because all our plans are all fully funded and costed, because that is how we will protect working people.”
The YouGov results that will make such grim reading for him were polled before Wednesday night’s debate, in which Mr Murphy was judged to have performed better. The voting intention numbers represent a 23 per cent swing from Labour to the SNP, compared with a 19.5 per cent swing last week.
They also represent a two-point rise in the proportion saying they will vote Tory, to 18 per cent, and the Lib Dems are also up one point to 4 per cent.
Under these figures, on a uniform swing the result would translate into 53 seats for the SNP, Labour on 4 seats and the Tories and Lib Dems on one each. Peter Kellner, president of YouGov, said: “While local factors, including MP incumbency, are likely to lead to Labour and the Lib Dems doing better than this, even so, this looks more like a tsunami than landslide.”
This comes as Labour continued to be broadly tied neck and neck with the Tories in the latest YouGov poll, while Labour edged in front with polls from TNS, Survation and Panelbase.
Survation put Labour on 35 per cent, up two, Tories on 31 per cent, down one, Ukip on 15 per cent, down three and Lib Dems on 9 per cent, unchanged.
Today Ed Miliband will travel to Scotland in the hope of reviving his party’s chances north of the border. The Labour leader will launch an aggressive attack on the SNP’s plans for full fiscal autonomy and point to independent analysis suggesting that they would blow a £7.6 billion hole in the country’s finances.
He is due to say: “You can’t build social justice with a £7.6 billion funding gap because the burdens of it would fall on working families across Scotland. In contrast, Labour does have a plan for social justice because all our plans are all fully funded and costed, because that is how we will protect working people.”
The YouGov results that will make such grim reading for him were polled before Wednesday night’s debate, in which Mr Murphy was judged to have performed better. The voting intention numbers represent a 23 per cent swing from Labour to the SNP, compared with a 19.5 per cent swing last week.
They also represent a two-point rise in the proportion saying they will vote Tory, to 18 per cent, and the Lib Dems are also up one point to 4 per cent.
Under these figures, on a uniform swing the result would translate into 53 seats for the SNP, Labour on 4 seats and the Tories and Lib Dems on one each. Peter Kellner, president of YouGov, said: “While local factors, including MP incumbency, are likely to lead to Labour and the Lib Dems doing better than this, even so, this looks more like a tsunami than landslide.”
This comes as Labour continued to be broadly tied neck and neck with the Tories in the latest YouGov poll, while Labour edged in front with polls from TNS, Survation and Panelbase.
Survation put Labour on 35 per cent, up two, Tories on 31 per cent, down one, Ukip on 15 per cent, down three and Lib Dems on 9 per cent, unchanged.
